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AMERICA, TAKE HEART: THE BEST IS YET TO COME Ed Ross | Monday, September 3, 2012 Americans are pessimistic about the future. News from around the country and around the world tells us America’s days at the pinnacle of power are over. We have to lower our standard of living. Our children won’t be better off than we are. Take heart America, nothing could be further from the truth. People, events, our vast natural resources and our competitive advantages are what have shaped America’s destiny. The world may be different today than it has been in the past, but America’s diverse, entrepreneurial, and ambitious people remain our greatest asset. Our energy resources remain vast and largely still untapped. And our competitive advantages, though currently lagging, can be regained. No great power lasts forever, but America’s time at the hub of human civilization is far from over. What made us the dominant world power of the 20th century will make us the dominant power of the 21st century if we use our assets intelligently. To be sure, America faces enormous challenges and threats. The world is in political, economic, and social turmoil. Muslim fundamentalism is on the rise. Rogue states are acquiring nuclear weapons. Democracy is on the defensive as China and other countries offer alternative models for success. Western democracies, including the United States, have promised more entitlements than they can deliver, threatening economic and political stability. Maintaining U.S. power and influence abroad requires strengthening our national defense and demonstrating our willingness and ability to lead as we have done so successfully in the past. Americans are war weary after a decade of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; but that doesn’t mean they don’t understand the necessity for American leadership in world affairs. The solution to our current economic crisis is no mystery. It requires fundamental tax and entitlement reform, less government spending, and policies that foster economic growth. The unanswered question is will American politicians and voters have the good sense to do what’s necessary? I believe they do. At the heart of both our foreign and domestic problems is the issue of energy independence. Cheap energy built America. We can’t revitalize the American Dream without it. Contrary to what many would like us to believe, new technologies and new discoveries could make the North American continent energy independent in ten years. The shale gas revolution has turned America into the world’s number one producer of natural gas. Hydraulic fracturing in North Dakota, Texas and across the Mid-West is resulting in a quantum leap in U.S. shale oil production. Add to that increased drilling for oil offshore and in known reserves such as Alaska, and the U.S. has fossil-fuels sufficient to last through the 21st century, more than sufficient time to develop alternative energy sources that today cannot meet America’s needs. America has become less dependent on foreign oil over the past ten years, but it still has a way to go. The U.S. supplies 72 percent of its oil requirements today up from 50 percent a decade ago. According to Francisco Blanch, managing director and head of global commodity research at Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch "The implications of this shift are very large for geopolitics, energy security, historical military alliances and economic activity. As U.S. reliance on the Middle East continues to drop, Europe is turning more dependent and will likely become more exposed to rent-seeking behavior from oligopolistic players." At the same time China’s rise and competitive advantage based on cheap labor is not as ominous as many have feared. It faces huge political, economic, and social challenges in the years ahead that make America’s pale by comparison. And according to the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), Chinese wage inflation (16 percent a year for the past 10 years) is making outsourcing of jobs and manufacturing to China less appealing. Those that rushed to China over the past decade already are coming back. “The list of ‘repatriates’ is growing. Farouk Systems is bringing back assembly of hair dryers to Texas after counterfeiting problems; ET Water Systems has switched its irrigation products to California; Master Lock is returning to Milwaukee, and NCR is bringing back its ATM output to Georgia. NatLabs is coming home to Florida,” said BCG's Harold Sirkin. Meanwhile, GM may be in the red, but the auto industry in America is alive and well. On balance the problems and challenges America faces are no greater, in many cases much less, than countries around the world face. What America has they do not, because of our political and economic systems and our vast resources, is the ability to quickly adapt and move forward and a history of successfully taking on the world’s most difficult challenges and succeeding. All that’s necessary is for American leaders to lead in the direction Americans naturally want to be led, and America’s greatest prosperity and achievements will be in the future not in the past.
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