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KISS THE REPUBLICAN PARTY GOODBYE Republican Presidential Prospects Fall by the Wayside July 6, 2009 In September 2008, I wrote a column titled “Kiss the Democratic Party Goodbye” based on a quote from Robert Redford. The liberal Democrat and Obama supporter, speaking in July 2008 at Trinity College in Dublin, Ireland, said that if Barack Obama loses the 2008 presidential election, “you can kiss the Democratic Party goodbye.” This July, someone's bound to say that if the Republican Party can't recapture the White House in 2012, you can kiss the Republican Party goodbye. The 2012 election is still a long way off, but already Republican presidential candidates are falling by the wayside. On June 16, Republican Senator John Ensign of Nevada, a leading conservative often mentioned as a potential presidential candidate, admitted he had an extramarital affair with a woman on his campaign staff. Ensign, the fourth-ranking member of the Republican leadership and chairman of the Republican Policy Committee, resigned that position but said he would remain in the Senate. Whatever presidential prospects he may have had, however, dropped off the charts. On June 23, after mysteriously going AWOL for seven days, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford emerged and admitted in a press conference that he had flown to Argentina to visit a woman with whom he was having an affair. In subsequent statements he admitted that he had “crossed the line” with other women, although not sexually. Compounding Sanford’s indiscretions was his inability to stop talking about them. Sanford resigned his position as Chairman of the Republican Governors Association but said he would remain as South Carolina’s governor. His presidential prospects also disappeared. These events, as jolting and demoralizing as they were to Republicans, proved only to be warning tremors for the big earthquake to come. On July 3, Sarah Palin announced that she would not run for a second term as Alaska’s governor and that she would resign, a year and a half early, on July 26. Many commentators and pundits immediately said this was a foolish move that destroyed whatever prospects she had for ever winning the presidency. Palin tends to make her own rules, but there are some rules in politics you ignore at your peril. American voters generally don’t like quitters. No doubt the constant drumbeat of frivolous ethics complaints and attacks from the left, David Letterman’s recent off-color jokes about her daughter, and the hit piece in the current edition of Vanity Fair magazine, contributed to Palin's decision. It’s too early to know if this risky move will ultimately help or hinder her run for the presidency if she decides to make one. Even her supporters acknowledge that she needs better command of foreign policy issues and the substance of news stories about her needs to be something other than her personality and her family. Her resignation from the governorship isn't likely to diminish the left's attacks and will give them more to attack her about. Democratic activists could barely contain their glee, preferring the public’s attention on anyone’s problems other than Obama's--approaching his six-month mark, his domestic agenda and foreign policy have encountered formidable obstacles. They immediately labeled Palin’s move as “erratic” and began mentally writing the script for a future campaign attack ad. Their consistent goal has been to make Palin unelectable. For the moment, at least, many of them believe they’ve succeeded. They weren’t all that concerned about either Ensign or Sanford, but they were concerned about Palin, whose approval rating among Republicans before her July 3 announcement was 75 percent. Nevertheless, the misfortunes of speculative Republican presidential candidates are but a temporary respite. Musings of the punditocracy and the blogosphere on American presidential politics notwithstanding, if Obama succeeds at bringing the country quickly out of recession and puts people back to work; finds compromises on programs for health care, energy and education that win broad popular support; and keeps the country safe from intimidation and attack, he’ll likely win reelection in 2012 no matter who the Republican candidate is. And if this rosy scenario becomes reality then it may be time to kiss the Republican Party goodbye. Short of this, he’s vulnerable. Meantime, Grassroots activism among conservatives is on the rise. Whether it’s the tea party movement or the Twitterization of conservative opposition to Obama's policies, the next Republican president will be the person who best harnesses this energy and captures the imagination of the American people. That person is out there. We're just not sure who it is yet. * * * * ____________________________________________________________ |
Sen. John Ensign Resigns GOP Leadership Post Mark Sanford Disappearance and Extramarital Affair Weary Palin Sought to Regain Control
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